Du meinst Benford's law (das Benfordsche Gesetz). (mT)

DT, Donnerstag, 08.07.2021, 10:50 (vor 1016 Tagen) @ Manuel H.1982 Views

Leider ist das Benfordsche Gesetz nicht auf Wahlen anwendbar. Siehe hier:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/benfords-law-and-the...

Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud

"This essay, however, argues that, despite its apparent utility in looking at other phenomena, Benford's Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections. Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford's Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its “success rate” either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst."

DT


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