Hallo paranoia,

danke für die Nachhilfe. Ich habe das zu unkritisch interpretiert. Ich habe mich mit den COT-Zahlen zwei Jahrzehnte nicht mehr beschäftigt. Meine Interpretation war, dass die große Differenz von total reportable shorts und open interest die Marktstruktur widerspiegelt, beispielsweise Banken und Hedgefonds den Markt dominieren, diese dann auch tyoischerweise short sind. Ich habe das so interpretiert, dass diese dann auch gefährdeter sind, wenn die Longs Physisches fordern. Aus der Differenz direkt kann man aber wohl kein Risiko errechnen.

- Er liest schon korrekt die total reportable short positions vor.
- Die Aussage, die Comex wäre short ist natürlich falsch, die Comex ist nur Handelsplatz

Gruß
Martin

PS:

Die Tapete des COT-Berichts wollte ich mir aber nicht antun.

SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-084691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 151,513
COMMITMENTS
47,337 15,277 26,065 42,595 97,887 115,997 139,229 35,516 12,284

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,727)
-47 -2,836 2,013 -5,394 -1,793 -3,428 -2,616 1,701 889

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
31.2 10.1 17.2 28.1 64.6 76.6 91.9 23.4 8.1

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 207)
108 37 45 38 45 167 110


MICRO SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-084694
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 24,032
COMMITMENTS
10,390 13,832 999 0 0 11,389 14,831 12,643 9,201

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: .)
. . . . . . . . .

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
43.2 57.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 47.4 61.7 52.6 38.3

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 20)
13 7 6 0 0 15 11


COPPER- #1 - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-085692
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 25,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 269,813
COMMITMENTS
97,415 43,974 65,513 82,378 151,340 245,306 260,827 24,507 8,986

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 2,786)
-4,309 108 5,294 784 -2,268 1,769 3,134 1,017 -348

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
36.1 16.3 24.3 30.5 56.1 90.9 96.7 9.1 3.3

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 314)
180 48 91 58 57 275 173


GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 527,455
COMMITMENTS
296,183 44,945 81,670 83,382 380,488 461,235 507,103 66,220 20,352

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 39,339)
21,748 -1,858 8,325 3,164 28,235 33,237 34,702 6,102 4,637

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
56.2 8.5 15.5 15.8 72.1 87.4 96.1 12.6 3.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 325)
205 51 76 52 49 287 150


MICRO GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088695
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 10 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 72,555
COMMITMENTS
26,158 40,530 5,827 2,850 0 34,835 46,357 37,720 26,198

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 3,822)
3,055 2,918 429 -161 0 3,323 3,347 499 475

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
36.1 55.9 8.0 3.9 0.0 48.0 63.9 52.0 36.1

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 38)
20 15 9 2 0 28 19


COBALT - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-188691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2,204.62 pounds (1 Metric Ton) OPEN INTEREST: 15,725
COMMITMENTS
5,026 4,845 3,005 6,954 7,175 14,985 15,025 740 700

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 310)
-5 -117 143 92 196 230 222 80 88

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
32.0 30.8 19.1 44.2 45.6 95.3 95.5 4.7 4.5

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 43)
13 10 12 11 18 29 35


LITHIUM HYDROXIDE - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-189691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1000) Kilograms OPEN INTEREST: 23,291
COMMITMENTS
3,631 10,525 2,574 16,639 9,387 22,844 22,486 447 805

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 531)
-415 637 556 315 -806 456 387 75 144

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.6 45.2 11.1 71.4 40.3 98.1 96.5 1.9 3.5

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 43)
13 15 14 11 8 32 29


ALUMINUM - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-191691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(25 Metric Tons) OPEN INTEREST: 2,155
COMMITMENTS
511 451 706 1 731 1,218 1,888 937 267

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -188)
-164 -234 -13 1 30 -176 -217 -12 29

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
23.7 20.9 32.8 0.0 33.9 56.5 87.6 43.5 12.4

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 23)
9 7 10 1 4 17 17


ALUMINUM MWP - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-191693
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(55,116 US Pounds-25 MT) OPEN INTEREST: 25,022
COMMITMENTS
1,815 5,134 733 22,221 18,758 24,769 24,625 253 397

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 904)
69 706 -170 955 511 854 1,047 50 -143

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
7.3 20.5 2.9 88.8 75.0 99.0 98.4 1.0 1.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 48)
5 13 4 21 22 29 36


ALUMINIUM EURO PREM DUTY-PAID - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-191696
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(25 METRIC TONS) OPEN INTEREST: 26,893
COMMITMENTS
3,619 6,825 26 23,108 20,042 26,753 26,893 140 0

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 551)
584 389 -69 36 231 551 551 0 0

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
13.5 25.4 0.1 85.9 74.5 99.5 100.0 0.5 0.0

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 31)
8 3 1 17 10 25 14


STEEL-HRC - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-192651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 20 SHORT TONS) OPEN INTEREST: 35,549
COMMITMENTS
13,437 2,415 956 20,592 31,982 34,985 35,353 564 196

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 4,037)
1,417 -128 -26 2,565 4,140 3,956 3,986 81 51

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
37.8 6.8 2.7 57.9 90.0 98.4 99.4 1.6 0.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 57)
21 9 6 23 16 46 30


NORTH EURO HOT-ROLL COIL STEEL - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-192691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/13/26 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(20 Metric Tons) OPEN INTEREST: 10,240
COMMITMENTS
4,320 1,298 1,140 4,672 7,672 10,132 10,110 108 130

CHANGES FROM 01/06/26 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 296)
514 7 50 -341 146 223 203 73 93

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
42.2 12.7 11.1 45.6 74.9 98.9 98.7 1.1 1.3

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 23)
7 3 4 8 8 17 14