"Laut ihrer Modellierungsstudie starben rund 267.000 bis zu 12 Monate alte Kinder infolge des coronabedingten Wirtschaftsabschwungs – also insgesamt rund 7 Prozent mehr als im Mittel der Vorjahre."

Das ganze sind Modellannahmen. Kein einziger Tod ist belegt, und ebenso ist kein einziger Tod eines Kindes durch Corona in dieser Studie erwähnt oder belegt.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/weltbank-studie-hunderttausende-babys-infolg...

Hier ist der Link zur Originalquelle:

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/9/e050551
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050551

How many infants may have died in low-income and middle-income countries in 2020 due to the economic contraction accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic? Mortality projections based on forecasted declines in economic growth

Gil Shapira, Damien de Walque, Jed Friedman

Abstract

Objectives: While COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this vulnerable group in low-income and middle-income countries through its effects on the economy and health system performance. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling how hypothesised disruptions in health services will affect health outcomes. We provide alternative projections, relying on modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality.

Design: We construct a sample of 5.2 million births by pooling retrospective birth histories reported by women in Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 83 low-income and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2018. We employ regression models with country-specific fixed-effects and flexible time trends to estimate the impact of gross domestic product per capita on infant mortality rate. We then use growth projections by the International Monetary Fund to predict the effect of the economic downturn in 2020 on infant mortality.

Results: We estimate 267 208 (95% CI 112 000 to 422 415) excess infant deaths in 128 countries, corresponding to a 6.8% (95% CI 2.8% to 10.7%) increase in the total number of infant deaths expected in 2020.

Conclusions: The findings underscore the vulnerability of infants to the negative income shocks such as those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services.

Super: eine Modellierung, mit allen möglichen Annahmen, und dann als Result: "We estimate", aber dann die Zahl auf 6 Stellen genau angeben. Was für Dilettanten.

Der zentrale Punkt des Papers ist diese Annahme hier für den Zusammenhang zwischen "Income" und "Infant Mortality":

We estimate the relation between aggregate income change and infant mortality with the following framework:

D_ict is a binary indicator taking the value 1 if child i in country c died in the first 12 months of life during year t. log GDP is the natural logarithm of per capita GDP and eps_ict is the error term. The α and γ coefficients identify country-specific fixed effects and a country-specific cubic time trend, respectively. SEs are clustered at the country level; β is the coefficient of interest, describing the relationship between aggregate income shocks and infant mortality.

Typisch Amis: meinen, man könne eine Kurve konstruieren mit einem Log drin und einem Polynom und dann die Wirklichkeit beschreiben. Dann ein paar Zahlen reingefüttert und eine Zahl rausbekommen. Die auf 6 Stellen genau als "estimate" veröffentlicht, und der Spiegel macht "Hunderttausende tote Babies" darauf.

Man könnte fast sagen, eine weitere "Brutkastenlüge".

Fuck you Drecks-"Journalisten"!

Verwandtes Thema: Kinder die wegen des Todes der Eltern bzw Großeltern durch Covid zu Weisen werden:
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/every-two-covid-19-deaths-one-child-loses-caregiver-...