Hubbert's Peak is Finally Here

Conventional oil production has now unequivocally rolled over. Unconventional production, the only source of growth in global oil supply over the last 12 years, has also significantly slowed. The only growing non-OPEC basin is the Permian in West Texas. Never before has oil supply growth been so geographically concentrated. Six counties in West Texas are now 100% responsible for all global production growth.

Bei all den aktuellen Problemen sollte man vielleicht nicht vergessen, daß es da noch weitere strategische Trends gibt.

Consensus opinion believed global oil demand would peak in 2019 and gradually decline through this decade. Just the opposite has occurred: demand has come roaring back post-COVID. Global demand in 1Q23 surpassed 102 mm barrels per day -- three million barrels above the 1Q19 (pre-COVID) level and almost 2 mm b/d above the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 1Q23 estimate. Strong demand and faltering supply led OECD countries to release 250 mm barrels of oil from their strategic petroleum reserves to keep prices from surging. Given the seasonality in demand and China’s ongoing reopening, the 4Q23 demand could surpass 104 mm b/d.

Irgendwie scheint die "grüne Energiewende" überhaupt keinen Einfluss auf die Nachfragesituation zu haben. Allerdings gab es beim letzten harten Knappheitssignal (2007-2008) einige interessante Folgewirkungen ...

Grüße

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Afuera!